Spatial analysis of human–wildlife conflict reveals a need for mitigation beyond protected area buffer zones in the Nepal Terai

Increasing human-wildlife conflict (HWC) is a global concern in the tropical lowlands of Nepal (the Terai), where megafauna populations have been increasing. Despite several site-specific studies quantifying HWC losses and modeling risk, landscape-scale distribution of incidents and the environmental factors shaping conflict risk remain poorly understood. We conducted a landscape-level assessment of HWC from 2018 to 2022 across 2803 Terai wards (smallest administrative units), in which we quantified species-specific patterns of human attacks and livestock depredation, mapped incident densities to identify conflict hotspots, and examined key environmental predictors of conflict occurrence and frequency. Of the 584 human attacks in 187 wards, 67% were caused by elephants, wild boars, and rhinos. Of the 4267 livestock depredation incidents in 211 wards, 99% were caused by leopards and tigers. Hotspots of HWC incidents were concentrated around protected areas (PAs), although they did extend into distant settlements. Of 12 pre-defined environmental predictors, proximity to wildlife habitats (PAs, biological corridors, and larger forest patches) consistently predicted both the occurrence and frequency of incidents, indicating that conflict risk is influenced by habitat connectivity. There is a need to extend conflict mitigation beyond buffer zones to high-risk settlements where wildlife frequently interacts with people, including settlements adjacent to transboundary PAs. Expanding spatially targeted mitigation, wildlife-resilient infrastructure, and awareness into these high-risk settlements will promote human–wildlife coexistence across the broader landscape.

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This work is licensed under CC-BY 4.0

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2026.e04319

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